NVDA Drops 9.3% Post-Earnings Despite Data Center Revenue Nearly Doubling: RSI at 39 Flags Oversold Territory

Nvidia's quarterly earnings report delivered a clear beat — data center revenue nearly doubled, per CNBC's coverage — yet NVDA closed the subsequent period down 9.28% over the last 20 sessions, a post-earnings slide that has become a recurring pattern for the stock. In Friday's session, NVDA clawed back some ground, gaining 2.22% to close at $204.87 on volume of 158.6 million shares — below its 20-day average volume of 179.5 million, indicating the recovery move did not attract full participation.

How the Post-Earnings Slide Is Reading in NVDA's Chart

The disconnect between NVDA's fundamental results and its price action is the defining tension in the chart right now. Business Insider confirmed the earnings beat, and The Motley Fool noted that sellers in these post-earnings drops have historically missed the underlying strength — yet the price data reflects exactly that selling pressure. The 20-day return of -9.28% and the 5-day return of -6.31% tell the same story: the market repriced NVDA lower after the report, and the stock has not recovered that ground.

Two additional threads are active in the news flow. The Motley Fool reported a positive SpaceX announcement tied to NVDA, adding a partnership catalyst to the mix. Separately, Moomoo published analysis arguing NVDA trades cheaper than the S&P 500 on a valuation basis. Thestreet.com also flagged a five-star analyst revisiting NVDA on what was described as a "peculiar GPU demand situation" — a phrase that introduces ambiguity into the demand narrative even as data center growth remains strong. These cross-currents explain the data's "mixed" sentiment classification and the choppy price action around the $200 level.

Why NVDA Trading Below Both Its SMA-20 and SMA-50 Defines the Current Trend

NVDA at $204.87 sits 5.22% below its 20-day simple moving average of $216.15 and 0.70% below its 50-day SMA of $206.32. Both moving averages are above the current price — a configuration that places NVDA in a short-to-medium term downtrend relative to its own recent history.

The SMA-50 at $206.32 is the more immediate reference. At Friday's close of $204.87, NVDA is separated from that level by $1.45. The EMA-12 at $210.59 and EMA-26 at $211.03 are both above price as well, and the EMA-12 sitting below the EMA-26 reflects the same bearish momentum alignment. The 20-day high of $235.74 versus the 20-day low of $200.42 maps out a $35.32 range — NVDA is currently trading near the bottom of that range, not the middle.

RSI at 39.26: What NVDA's Near-Oversold Reading Means After a 6.31% Five-Day Drop

The 14-period RSI sits at 39.26 — below the neutral 50 level and approaching the conventional oversold threshold of 30. That reading is the direct product of the -6.31% five-day return and the -9.28% 20-day return compressing momentum to the downside.

The historical move data adds context: NVDA's average daily move over the measured period is 1.97%, with a maximum single-day gain of 6.26% and a maximum single-day loss of -6.20%. The stock has closed higher on 52.5% of days — a near-even split that reinforces the mixed-sentiment characterization. Friday's 2.22% gain sits above the 1.97% average daily move, which represents a statistically above-average session for NVDA, though it follows a period of sustained selling.

NVDA's 45% Annualized Volatility and $6.06 Average Daily Range: The Volatility Profile Traders Need to Size Around

NVDA's 30-day annualized volatility registers at 45.04% — an elevated reading that translates directly into wide daily swings. The session range on Friday ran from $199.54 to $205.66, a $6.12 intraday spread, consistent with the historical average daily move of 1.97% applied to a ~$200 price level.

The options market is pricing in even more uncertainty. Mean implied volatility across all contracts stands at 150.87%, though the median IV of 79.71% indicates significant skew from outlier strikes pulling the mean higher. The put-call IV skew of 119.47 — derived from mean put IV of 200.06% versus mean call IV of 80.59% — reflects substantially elevated demand for downside protection relative to upside exposure. That skew is a direct read of how options participants are pricing tail risk in NVDA at current levels.

NVDA's $200.42 Support Floor and $206.32 SMA-50 Resistance: The Levels That Define the Next Move

The 20-day low of $200.42 is the most concrete near-term support level in the data. Friday's intraday low of $199.54 briefly undercut that level before the price recovered to close at $204.87 — a close back above the 20-day low after an intraday violation.

On the upside, the SMA-50 at $206.32 is the first moving average resistance NVDA needs to reclaim. Above that, the SMA-20 at $216.15 and the EMA-12 at $210.59 represent the next layers. The 20-day high of $235.74 marks the upper boundary of the recent range — $30.87 above Friday's close.

In the options market, the heaviest call OI is concentrated at the $200 strike (104,994 contracts), followed by the $210 strike (81,973 contracts) and the $230 strike (79,109 contracts). On the put side, the top OI strikes are $140 (88,825 contracts) and $75 (76,245 contracts). The put-call OI ratio of 0.97 — with total call OI at 1,927,102 versus total put OI at 1,864,626 — reflects a nearly balanced open interest structure across the chain.

What to Watch in the Next Session

The $200.42 level is the data-defined floor to monitor. Friday's intraday breach and recovery keeps that level in focus — a sustained close below it would extend the 20-day range to new lows. The SMA-50 at $206.32 is the first resistance level above current price; how NVDA trades relative to that level on the next session will clarify whether Friday's 2.22% gain represents a trend shift or a single-session bounce within the broader post-earnings consolidation. Volume relative to the 20-day average of 179.5 million shares will be the key confirmation metric to watch alongside price.

All data sourced from polygon.io as of 2026-06-13. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.