TXN Drops 2.29% as 300mm Capacity Rally Faces Sustainability Test: RSI Falls to 40 Near 20-Day Low

Texas Instruments' much-discussed 300mm capacity rally — the same thesis that Seeking Alpha credited for driving TXN "on a tear" — ran into a wall Thursday, with the stock closing at $282.01 after shedding 2.29% from a prior close of $288.63. The session's low of $281.84 is now the 20-day low on record, a level swing traders will be watching closely as the broader narrative around TXN's data center-driven outperformance gets stress-tested in real time.

Volume came in at approximately 7.33 million shares, below the 20-day average of 8.18 million, marking a lighter-than-average tape on a down day.

How TXN's 300mm Capacity Story Is Reading in the Chart Right Now

The fundamental backdrop for TXN remains headline-rich. TIKR.com reported that TXN stock is up 58% year-to-date, powered in part by a 90% year-over-year surge in data center revenue. D. E. Shaw flagged TXN among the 10 best dividend stocks to buy, per Yahoo Finance, and 24/7 Wall St. raised the pointed question of whether TXN's outperformance versus NVIDIA in 2026 represents a "rotational fluke or paradigm shift."

That last question is now being answered, at least partially, by price action. The stock has shed 8.61% over the last five sessions and 4.46% over the last 20 days. The rally that carried TXN to a 20-day high of $324.89 has fully unwound to a 20-day low — a round-trip of $42.88 from peak to current price. Trefis noted that TXN's rally is "asking one big question" about sustainability, and Thursday's session added another data point to that question.

Why TXN's -6.9% Gap Below Its SMA-20 Is the Dominant Trend Signal

The trend structure on TXN is split across timeframes, and that split is meaningful.

On the shorter timeframe, TXN trades at $282.01 — 6.9% below its 20-day simple moving average of $302.92. The EMA-12 at $296.08 and EMA-26 at $291.05 both sit well above current price, confirming the near-term trend has turned lower. When price breaks beneath both short-term exponential averages by this magnitude, the path of least resistance on the intermediate trend is down.

The longer-term picture is different. TXN holds 4.98% above its 50-day SMA of $268.64, which means the multi-month uptrend from the 300mm capacity re-rating is still technically intact. The SMA-50 at $268.64 is the structural support level that defines whether the year-to-date thesis remains intact or begins to unravel.

The gap between SMA-20 ($302.92) and SMA-50 ($268.64) spans $34.28 — TXN is currently trading between these two averages, closer to the lower bound. That positioning reflects a stock in a corrective phase within a longer-term uptrend.

RSI at 40.34: What TXN's Weakening Momentum Means After an 8.61% Five-Day Decline

The RSI-14 reads 40.34 — not oversold by the conventional 30 threshold, but firmly in the lower half of the range and deteriorating. Combined with a five-day return of -8.61% and a 20-day return of -4.46%, the momentum profile is unambiguously negative on the near-term lookback.

The historical move data adds context: TXN's average daily move is 2.19%, and the stock has recorded positive closes on 53.3% of days in the data set. Thursday's 2.29% decline is essentially one average daily move to the downside — not an outlier by TXN's own historical standards, given a recorded max daily loss of -6.65% and a max daily gain of 19.43%.

The RSI at 40.34 leaves room to compress further before reaching oversold territory. Traders watching momentum need to see RSI stabilize and reverse before the short-term trend can be characterized as anything other than under distribution pressure.

TXN's 43% Annualized Volatility: What the Options Market Is Pricing Into This Pullback

The 30-day annualized volatility on TXN sits at 43.14%, a figure that translates to meaningful daily move expectations. The options market is pricing that risk with a mean IV of 109.64% — well above the median IV of 77.3%, indicating that elevated out-of-the-money contracts are pulling the average higher.

The IV skew of 13.29 (mean put IV of 117.34% versus mean call IV of 104.05%) shows puts are priced at a premium to calls, reflecting demand for downside protection relative to upside exposure. The put/call open interest ratio of 1.09 (57,376 put OI versus 52,854 call OI) is consistent with that skew — there is modestly more open interest on the put side than the call side.

On the call side, the heaviest open interest is concentrated at the $210 strike (5,827 contracts), the $260 strike (5,801 contracts), the $230 strike (5,211 contracts), the $240 strike (4,626 contracts), and the $220 strike (4,049 contracts). All five of the top call OI strikes sit well below the current price of $282.01.

TXN's $324.89 Resistance and $268.64 Support: The Levels That Define the Next Move

Four price levels define the current TXN setup:

$324.89 — 20-day high, the peak of the recent rally and the level where selling pressure asserted itself
$302.92 — SMA-20, now acting as overhead resistance after price broke below it
$282.01 / $281.84 — current price / 20-day low, the level being tested in real time
$268.64 — SMA-50, the longer-term structural support that anchors the year-to-date uptrend

The distance from current price ($282.01) to SMA-50 support ($268.64) is $13.37, or approximately 4.74%. Given TXN's average daily move of 2.19% and annualized volatility of 43.14%, that buffer can compress quickly in an adverse tape.

What to Watch in the Next Session

The 20-day low of $281.84 is the immediate level to monitor. A close below that level extends the corrective leg and brings the SMA-50 at $268.64 into closer focus as the next structural reference. On the upside, any recovery attempt faces the SMA-20 at $302.92 and the EMA-26 at $291.05 as overhead levels to clear. RSI at 40.34 and the elevated put IV of 117.34% indicate the options market is pricing continued near-term volatility — consistent with TXN's own 43.14% annualized vol profile and its 2.19% average daily move.

All data sourced from polygon.io as of 2026-06-12. This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.